The Building Blocks For Everything That Could Occur In The Next 1000 Days Exists Today

E107: Building a 1000 day radar - the Near Future

tl;dr

Imagine the near future - 1000 days forward. The building blocks for everything that could occur in 1000 days exist today. How do we watch for signals and exercise our agency to tilt the future in the direction of good?

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1000 day radar

How long is 1000 days? Well, 1000 days ~ 2.75 years, which means June 2026. The near future. And why do we care what could happen in that time span? Discussions three decades in the future may be daunting. But three years? We can imagine that — right?

Reading the signals

Grab a pen, pick your favorite thinking cap, and play a game along with me:

🎓 🎩 🥳

What can you imagine as possible in these fields over the next 1000 days? What is the best that can happen? What is the worst?

• AI

• Climate

• Transportation

• [topic of your choice]

Go on. Pull out a notebook or open your Roam and let your imagination take over. I dare you! What signals are you picking up?

I’ve had a mind-bending few days imagining possible futures in an event hosted by a Futures Think Tank Grey Swan Guild¹. “AI’s next 100 days” “Heatwave - bringing the Hot, Hot Heat” “Stations of the Future” were three of over 20 different panel topics. Some other interesting ones? Space Sustainability, Climate & Schooling, The Future of Consulting, Freshwater Shortages, Future of Content Delivery, etc.

The best/worst scenario was an interesting exercise. This past week has reportedly been one of the most dynamic in AI incl ChatGPT [The Big Tech AI Roundup in

Packy McCormick

‘s newsletter Weekly Dose of Optimism]. If so much is possible in seven days, what is feasible in 1000 days?

How long is 1000 days? And why do we care what could happen in that time span? Well, 1000 days ~ 2.75 years. No - this is not a typo. But a reminder of how fast time moves.
What was happening in our world 1000 days ago? If we’d done this exercise then - in December 2020 - what would our answers have been for:

• AI

• Climate

• Transportation

• [topic of your choice]

Did you read the signals correctly on advances in technology, regulation, and global collaboration on climate? If you got the signals right, did you guess the speed and velocity, the impact of these developments on education, migration, and the economy?

But were these the topics on your radar? As a new Covid-19 alpha variant hit in September 2020 and we realized that cloth masks wouldn’t be sufficient to protect us were you instead worrying:

• If vaccinations would ever be created, and when you would have access to them

• When your local lockdown might end

• What was going to happen to your teen entering high school - where, if, and how would your 9th grader apply to university? That student would be frantically working on their application essays … in 1000 days²

Agency

Now … What … what … WhatIf? … you can influence what happens? Can you/can we …

1000 days seems long. But we can influence what happens over these next 2.75 years.

Whatever you predict in the next 1000 days, realize the signals exist today - the essential elements to create that possibility exist right now - less uncertain

I scribbled that realization into my Roam note during the panel discussion on AI’s next 1000 days. Progress is a waterfall of concepts.

“What would have to happen for this to be true?” What advances in technology? What collaborations of brilliant minds? What twists of fate?

The wild imaginations of a science fiction writer, visioned onto screen by a brilliant prop developer, plants the germ for the real-life technology that becomes the flip phone, which when married with the birth of the internet gives us the smartphone.

Expectations that we would have a Covid vaccine before 2022 were low. The normal timeline to create a vaccine was 10-12 years. The Mumps vaccine held the record of fastest, having taken four years to develop. And then the Covid-19 mRNA vaccine became available in December 2020³. This happened because the building block was already underway. The vaccination delivery methods — mRNA technology — had been under development since the 1990s. Advances in genetic sequencing meant it took days rather than months to get an exact picture of this new little virus, leading to better, quicker diagnosis and isolation.

On the best-case scenario list, how do we steer AI to identify global health crises before they become pandemics? Can AI help with food security, education planning, and better ocean water management? But if you consider the worst-case scenario, will it be abused by the powerful few? How do we work against that possibility? How do we train ChatGPT and feed it with thoughtful, ethical prompts? How do we train today’s tween and teen to leverage these technologies appropriately? [Encourage a conversation debating “Should we do it?” vs “Can we do it?”]

What ‘today’ decisions can we make that mean we won’t repeat the Summer of 2023 climate catastrophes like the Canadian wildfires, international floods, and Phoenix’s triple-digit temperatures in June 2026?

I found that one observation “the building blocks exist today” compelling and empowering. Because it reminds me that I have agency in the next 1000 days. What can I do?

• I can write and elevate the profile of topics that are major concerns.

• I can vote, and encourage others to seek out candidates that support our personal visions for the future.

• I can create collaborations, make random introductions, and support new ideas. “The best idea can come from anyone, anywhere, at any time. You have permission, so dream big, dream bold.”

• I can research advances in technologies and fields important to me.

• I can pay attention to, lean into - and amplify - signals that tilt the future away from harm.

What 1000-day difference can you make?

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Our Tilt Tribe continues to expand. This week we welcome a number of high school guidance counselors, adding their support as we raise a generation of future-ready leaders.

You join this rich community that believes in the best of humanity - connecting people, sharing ideas, and exploring thoughts respectfully. And we believe we can make a difference to the people and places that are precious to us.

As we hit the two-year mark, I’ve added a /now page so you can figure out what I’m doing /now

What I’m doing now

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Stay healthy. From there all else becomes possible. See you next week.
Karena

1. So you like exploring these concepts too? Recordings will be available on the Grey Swan Guild YouTube channel and their Medium page. The guild is open to anyone curious about these concepts.

2. The time period between September of freshman year, and the dates you start writing college application essays is ~ 1000 days! “You cannot magic a robust university application in Grade 12 if you don’t have the necessary Lego blocks of extra-curricular, community service, and academics already in place,” I advised at the Prepskills U.S. College Expo Counsellor Breakfast, where Canadian guidance counselors discover how the US college application process and opportunities differ Canadian options for their students.

3. On December 8, 2020, I woke to the news that the first vaccination was administered in the UK to Margaret Keenan. And I cried. Because suddenly there was hope on our horizon.