Is this the biggest "marshmallow test" of all?
E9: Can we hold out for more marshmallows and sustainable earth?
Welcome!
“If I had more time I would have written a shorter letter”
Blaise Pascal, French mathematician
Climate and the Long View. Two of my magnet topics. It is a conversation that I hope sparks a question, suggestions on how we can make a difference, some rays of hope. I hope you will be inspired to share your thoughts - in conversations across your table with friends, in emails, and back to me, the way we normally communicate.
I ended up splitting my essay over two reads and programmed in some “read if interested” sidebars.
📖 This week’s longer read: Is this just a giant climate “Marshmallow Experiment”? Pt 1
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Karena
Today’s longer article may be easier to read in your browser here
📖 IS THIS A GIANT CLIMATE MARSHMALLOW EXPERIMENT?
The short read:
Leaders from countries across the globe have gathered at COP26 to put plans in play to move the temperature needle lower. It requires negotiation that leads to consensus. It requires behaviour modification. Is that possible?
Climate puts countries under varying degrees of economic pressure. The fully developed are capable of holding their breath underwater. Those still developing are barely treading water. All the adults in the room know the right thing to do. But when it comes to negotiation, many treat it as a zero-sum game. Which we know is not so. Our air and oceans do not respect manmade borders.
“Nobody wins unless everybody wins”
- Bruce Springsteen
Can we practice delayed gratification for our own nations, financially assist the developing nations so they have a chance at survival, and create the conditions necessary for the earth and all its species to recover?
And how do we convert those commitments into fast and furious action at home, on the ground? Because in the end, it is action, not pacts, that will matter the most.
The longer read:
Is this just one big climate “marshmallow experiment”?
Welcome to another of our Climate Conversations between Maya and Karena.
Maya: Oh! That looks like a nice cup of hot cocoa, Karena. Why the stack of marshmallows?
Karena: Please, join me, Maya.
I was playing with these marshmallows and thinking of the parallels between that 1960s Marshmallow experiment and how our politicians and negotiators are approaching these whole climate conversations. They are nitpicking over words, while whole ecosystems are on the brink of collapse.
Maya: I've started paying closer attention to the climate conversation since our last discussion "We borrow this earth from our children." Particularly with the world leaders gathered in Glasgow for COP26 - the UN Conventions on Climate Change. The time for talk alone is done. We have been “talking” about this for 26 years! "Blah! Blah! Blah!" as Greta Thunberg would say.
Karena: I expect to live another 40 years. These kids will live another 80. A child born today will still be alive in the early 2100s. I do not want to look back in another 26 years in 2047, bewildered by what could have been possible “if only” we had taken significant action today. What will 2050 - 2100 look like given the many "extreme weather" events across the globe just in the last year: devastating wildfires in Australia and the Pacific Northwest; flooding in Germany, China and Fiji; Hurricane Ida, the heat dome in the Pacific Northwest - the list goes on. I know concerned and informed people who attended the Rio Summit in 1992, hopeful to galvanize change early enough. Imagine if we had honoured some of our agreements at that Summit or the Kyoto protocol in 1997?
Maya: It's definitely sobering to think about what I want the world to look like as I age. Or, put a different way, what will the climate look like in 2047 when my kid is about my age? What quality of life will it permit them to live? I imagine them having enough success so they can buy themselves beautiful things, like a home on a beach. But what is the point of that house if there is no longer a beach?
I remember the Marshmallow Experiment from psychology class - testing for self-control. You could have one marshmallow now. But if you can wait, you would be rewarded with double the treat: two marshmallows! Those videos were hilarious! But what does it have to do with climate?
What is the Marshmallow Experiment? (link in reference section in article on the browser)
Video: The Marshmallow Test
Researchers followed these children at intervals for the next 40 years. Those 1969 4- and 5-year-olds who exercised stronger self-control had a better chance at long-term success. They were less likely to have obesity and substance abuse, had better social skills, and did better in school and in their careers. Their ability to have a long view, a longer-term vision, set them up for longer-term success. They were able to take "future consequences into account". I am sure that there would be many insights for 21st-century skills in this study for modern-day parents.
Karena: The videos are hilarious! You should see the things the kids do to resist the temptation! Some will squash it, some will lick it, others pace the room. They clearly start with great intentions of waiting for the great reward of a double serving. They have done their math, and even to a pre-schooler the benefits are clear "two is more than one".
The study coined the term "delayed gratification". Researchers continued to follow this same group of children at intervals over the next 40 years of their lives. And they found a strong correlation between the children with stronger willpower and their academic, career and life success.
The phrase that stuck with me from one of the videos was the ability "to take future consequences into account". That is what we need right now. And that is where my interest in the marshmallow experiment and climate intersect.
So what does this have to do with climate?
Karena: For the sake of Mother Earth, humanity and the species with which we share this planet, more of us adult humans need to practice the discipline of delayed gratification. But this is at odds with our current economic model:
"I want it all, I want it all, I want it all.
And I want it now"
- Queen (Lyrics to "I want it all")
We are overfishing the oceans, overgrazing the land. The rapidly melting polar ice caps are drowning out island nations and eroding our favourite beaches. Each industry and each nation is out for self-protection, demanding exemptions for their own citizens and economies. We have fallen for the immediate gratification of Amazon Prime. We are losing the art of planning ahead. which absolves us from planning ahead. At every stage, we create waste. I am wondering how we can convince a larger global population to exert a little delayed gratification now, in the hope that it will help heal our planet so that we can continue to share this wondrous gift with future generations.
Maya: Something you said last time has stuck with me, Karena:
I am getting very concerned. Each nation sent negotiators to COP26. They burnt the midnight oil, hammering out agreements. But those are the words and the intentions.
It is urgent that we maintain the tension between those commitments and real action. The Paris Agreement (COP21) was held in 2015 - six years ago! What does it take to get movement on these issues? With every corner of the earth experiencing unusual weather in 2021, it seems to me that this is the most urgent COP meeting to date. If we cannot create synergy in the face of the “Code Red for Humanity” report from the UN IPCC, when will we?
Karena: I know. It can get overwhelming. I, too, am afraid of being disappointed. It seems like these events are great photo ops for the politicians. They get their talking points and off they fly.
I have been wondering. What stops these exuberant agreements from turning into action when everyone gets back to their own home country? Just look at the horse-trading that is going on in the US Congress at present for the Infrastructure and Build Back Better bills.
The politicians and negotiators are the little kids who cannot wait to get their hands on the single marshmallow. They leave the room waving it triumphantly at having one-upped someone else. But are they cheating their own voters out of the bigger opportunities that might come with delayed gratification? Instead of watching out for the long-term interests of their base, are they pandering to short-term gratification?
But it is also on us. In the end it is action - projects at the local level, pressure on local elected officials, choices that we make - that will signal to the government that the times have changed and the citizens are demanding a viable nation that can be handed down to the next three generations.
Maya: I think many are afraid. When they hear less of, they feel they are losing a life they already have. The possibilities are not yet clearly evident. So they think in terms of trade-offs.
But we are talking about short-term transitions and almost immediate benefit. All for long-term “possibilities”. Existence vs Extinction. We need to change this to a conversation about choices. Ours. Our kids. When do we realize that we need to "take future consequences into account" and make choices with a longer time horizon?
Let's talk hope
Karena: First, though, I truly believe we need to focus on “Rational hope” That is what climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe calls it. Without that, humanity today cannot pull together and create the inspiration and ideas to think - and do - our way out of this. And that is what we need.
Beyond ourselves, we need to communicate that belief, conviction and possibility to a young generation that is still coming of age. “The best idea can come from anyone, anywhere, at any time.” GenZ is very clear on what is at stake. We need to hold out that vision of a world populated with humans, with green grass, sufficient clean water and clear air, and healthy sustainable ecosystems.
I believe in this idea so strongly, I had put it out in a LinkedIn post:
"Hope makes vision possible. Vision is what makes discussion possible.
We only lose if we give up hope."
To which my friend David W Reynolds responded:
I like this line – "Vision is what makes discussion possible."
Your words served as a catalyst for some additional/extended thoughts.
"Discussion empowers action.
Action creates change.
Change validates hope.
Hope generates vision.
Vision starts discussion.
Discussion..."
and so on. A great cycle!
Maya: You are right. That tipping point goes both ways. Right now I am noticing more positive initiatives. Not enough to take our foot off the gas (I have to search for a more climate-friendly metaphor!) but enough to show that a greater segment of the world's population is paying attention to climate.
I am encouraged by some initiatives being discussed particularly on the finance front. GFANZ encourages the money in our existing companies and systems to flow towards a more sustainable world. $130 trillion dollars in private capital and 450 firms from 45 countries are signed on. They always say follow the money - and now the money seems to be following and flowing green.
Karena: “Have your green go green!” That would be a good buzz phrase!
Long View
Karena: Ultimately, like the marshmallow test, I want to do what I can where I can. The biggest impact will be made by governments. Enough of us need to put pressure on our governments to ensure that future generations of our citizens enjoy some of the natural resources - clean air and water - that we had the opportunity to enjoy and appreciate as we grew.
I'm taking the long view and keeping my eye on the future. I picture my future self, 26 years from now.
I want to be lying on the beach in Goa just as my grandmother used to do "taking the baths". It was her once-a-year break, an excuse for a three-day hangout with her closest friends and siblings, a respite from the daily grind of housework as she helped to raise her grandchildren!
The weather is just warm enough. The waves are gently lapping the shoreline. The rustic picnic food is delicious. We are sipping from tender coconuts in the shade of a coconut grove.
I see myself enjoying a ski vacation with my children and any future grandchildren. There is that nip of cold in the air. We are grateful for the abundance of food. We are sitting by the open fire in a ski chalet. It has been a great day skiing on the slopes and exploring the glaciers that are still holding. We explain to our grandchildren how the glaciers were almost lost, and how the world rallied around to give them the special experience they had this day. I am savouring a giant mug of hot chocolate. And watching my giggling grandchildren, their faces covered with goo as they roast an unlimited supply of marshmallows.
#MakeTakeTalk
Where do you see yourself in 2047? How old are you? Who is by your side? How are you dressed? What are you eating? What colour is your sunrise? What vision are you holding on to?
And what are you doing today to ensure that will be possible?
But tick tock, the clock continues to tick while we make plans. And the ice is already melting.
First time here?
🎈 The Karena Arena:
The Karena Arena is our shared meeting space to trade any of the following. Care to share something with the community?
Something fun: A Dad joke / family-friendly humour
Something interesting: Share articles, books, apps, self-development tools in the spirit of Always Be Learning
😅 Something fun:
Dad joke:
I remember sitting in school learning the story of Pavlov and thinking “stupid dogs”.
Then the bell rings and we’d all go out to lunch.
🧠 Something interesting:
Are returns part of our sustainability and supply chain problem? Food for thought as we head into the gift buying and giving season. Here is a conversation “On Returns” led by Gad Allon, Professor of Operations, Information and Decisions at Wharton:
📸 Something beautiful:
I was at the Tower of London, next to London Bridge for the 100th anniversary of the Armistice Day November 11, 1918. The Moat that circled the Tower was filled with over 10,000 lights, lit by existing service members in memory. The image remains seared in my mind as both beautiful, serene and poignant. We enjoy our freedoms thanks to the sacrifice in numbers so immense their flames can light up a monument:
